Trade deficit reduction from the second half… Moderate oil prices fall

It has been predicted that the trade person will gradually improve with the slow drop in oil prices from the second half of the year.

From the second half of the year, the traffic will also improve, with the slow decline in oil prices.

According to the recent trade deficit evaluation and outlook report released by the Korea International Trade and Trade Research Institute on the 30th, the recent deterioration of trade balance is a common phenomenon of manufacturing exporters such as Germany, Japan, and China, and with a decline in oil prices from the second half It is also expected to gradually improve.

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The report evaluated that the trade deficit was a very unusual phenomenon as exports continued as this year. A total of five trade deficits, which have occurred since 2000, analyzed that the reduction of exports was the cause of trade deficit, such as Lehman.

This year’s trade deficit was also described as a combination of economic fluctuations and structural factors. The economic fluctuation factors cited the expansion of international raw materials such as crude oil, copper, and zinc due to the expectation of the economic recovery, which has spread since last year, and the expansion of import demand for domestic manufacturing companies to fill in stocks exhausted with supply network bottles. The structural cause is that the increase in natural gas imports due to the surge in oil prices and the increase in eco-friendly and low-carbon demand after the Russian-Ukrainian crisis has been a deterioration in trade balance.

Manufacturing countries, which have a high proportion of intermediate goods imports, explained that trade balance worsened at high oil prices, and it showed a pattern of making up for trade balance at low oil prices. Korea’s intermediate goods imports accounted for more than half of the total income (50.9%), and in the last 10 years, three countries in Korea, China, and Japan have been repeatedly repeating the pattern of trade balance fluctuating due to international oil prices..

Recently, even in the trade deficit, current accounts and foreign reserves have maintained a stable situation. In January this year, the trade balance has maintained a $ 1.9 billion surplus, even in the midst of a large deficit of $ 4.74 billion, and the service balance has been significantly reduced since 2017, which has helped the current account surplus since 2017.. As of the end of March, the amount of foreign exchange reserves remained in the world after Hong Kong.

Hong Ji-sang, a researcher at the International Trade and Trade Research Institute, said, “Since May, non-ferrous metals have been on a slight decline, and global outlook institutions are also slowing down in the second half of the year, considering China’s blockade.” Starting, Saudi crude oil will be introduced as an OSP (OSP), and trade reserves will be in place as soon as the crude oil supply and demand situation is improved in the second half of the year. ”

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